Agreed - overall this isn’t my point, but it’s a good thing to get calibrated.

Looking deeper, it seems like the stats vary along with specific criteria.

Another source: Sexual Violence Statistics - RAINN https://share.google/0MKSuQVWw2PWiZHhX

This puts the ratio at 1:10.

I think it’s probably true that men report fewer incidents, but the ratios are pretty far apart for rape. This website also makes the point that up to 30% of sexual assault for males occurs in childhood. Good stats for underreporting are hard to obtain but it seems like it’s something like 50% unreported for men. Maybe a bit lower for women. It just seems like a stretch to say that it’s equally likely for both genders. You’d have to go to extreme differences between the rates of reporting (3-5x).

Statistics - National Sexual Violence Resource Center (NSVRC) https://share.google/s8pcZdJvkkp4HGsDZ

Looks like overall it’s about 2:1. And more to the original point, no more than 10% of claims are potentially falsified (or as little as 2%). I’ll admit, I didn’t have this data originally.

Which is to say - the harm to falsely accused men and the harm to legitimately raped or harassed women are on totally different scales.

The number of men who claim innocence and the number of men who are actually innocent are two different things. Don’t let a real, but otherwise statistical anomaly, distract you from the actual harm done. A male victim and a female victim have equal rights to justice but a woman and a man do not have equal chances of experiencing sexual assault. Which cause deserves your attention?

Rochester: it’ll cure what ails ya.