• Zeniv
    5 hours

    Ok so this is interesting. I am not sure this number is accurate I haven’t fully vetted it. I do this same type of forecasting. Morgan Stanley said for current capex commitments by 2027 4th quarter they needed to be 700 billion in profit. The problem is to meet that number they would need full market saturation and another 3 trillion in capex for build out. That means the entire accessible market would be using AI. They have another problem that more than half the world cannot access AI in its current form. The tooling these companies are using are wasteful and don’t meet the bandwidth needs of mobile first countries. So until the industry adopts things like https://codecai.net/ half the world’s markets are inaccessible. Finally they are under attack from all sides even if they had the money they may not have the ability to build out the AI infrastructure because that build out is becoming untenable for most communities. Even more the open source models and low cost AI are already in someways encroaching quickly on frontier systems. If you look at it right now the only reason you don’t have home AI as a commonplace solution is because the manufacturer has chosen not to sell it to you.

    • SocialMediaRefugee@lemmy.worldEnglish
      21 minutes

      I’m just waiting for some breakthrough in the hardware and suddenly all of those data centers become outdated.

      With the stories of AI being used to break into secure systems I wouldn’t be surprised if other nations also start throwing up walls to block them.

    • AmyAye@nord.pubEnglish
      3 hours

      The local models thing is the real threat. For what 90% of the world who actually cares and wants AI, a local model is probably already “good enough”. Or would be if they could get the hardware, or maybe they don’t know how to set one up.

      • Sabata@ani.socialEnglish
        34 minutes

        Got a 27b model running on my gaming GPU. Its a bit slow but good enough to look someing up, causual coding, and stupid questions. China is really kicking ass with the open source models.

    • BillionaireStew@lemmy.worldEnglish
      2 hours

      Light web searching suggests that neither the automobile industry as a whole nor the health insurance industry as a whole exceed $3 trillion in annual global revenue. Which means the plagiarism-to-slop pipeline just needs to make a little bit more than the automobile and health insurance industries combined to justify itself.

      • Imgonnatrythis@sh.itjust.worksEnglish
        2 hours

        Easy. AI cloud controlled vehicle fleet with government support to make it mandatory, AI health centers as default healthcare, supplement the rest with premium AI generated nudies.

    • Damage@feddit.itEnglish
      3 hours

      If you look at it right now the only reason you don’t have home AI as a commonplace solution is because the manufacturer has chosen not to sell it to you.

      And memory shortage. By buying up all RAM they ensured that you can’t run much more than lobotomized models.

      • ZenivEnglish
        2 hours

        up all RAM they ensured that you can’t run much more than lobotomized models. this is what I mean they’ve chosen to target a different consumer and rightfully so in that they are paying a premium for that product but they are also being subsidized by the same vendor so it’s not clear that they are paying more due to the bizarre circular funding pattern.

    • non_burglar@lemmy.worldEnglish
      43 minutes

      This isn’t the same thing as making VCRs cheap enough that every home has one. There is no FOMO wirh AI at the consumer level, no one knows what to do with it. The only people who want it are the ones who male it!!

  • wuffah@lemmy.worldEnglish
    7 hours

    Imagine if this was invested in arresting climate change.

    • AmyAye@nord.pubEnglish
      3 hours

      And homelessness, and actual education for people.

      Yeah, “and”.

      You could probably actually solve a lot of problems in the world with this money.

    • Rothe@piefed.socialEnglish
      4 hours

      Instead they are literally posting trillions into accelerating climate change.

  • nightwatch_admin@lemmy.worldEnglish
    7 hours

    Revenue is not profit. How are they going to pay their debts, for example? 6T in (fantasised) ARR is already about a third of US Fortune 500 total revenue over 2025, 21T. Good luck with that lol.

    • ZenivEnglish
      2 hours

      I actually explain exactly the plan here. I wrote an article explaining it. They intend to use several channels to socialize losses. The big ones are the front door. Literal bail outs and subsidies on multiple levels. The back door is passing it on to passive investors. At the beginning of next year we will see a near total economic collapse as this bubble bursts. Once it does passive investors will be wiped out. A whole generation of retirement savings and pension plans wiped out while simultaneously the fed will bail out the major players. Here is the article https://themildtake.com/articles/2026-06-05-priced-for-rescue/. Most people picked up on this when SpaceX went public. What they didn’t mention was even if your in the S&P that only shields you from a single bad player and a minor one at that. Microsoft, oracle, google all these big hyperscalers and service providers renting that compute are all going to take a dive.

    • Lopoloma@fedinsfw.appEnglish
      3 hours

      I guess the $6tn is also including wages not being paid. They think they can just pocket the pros of AI and leave the rest of the world population with the cons. A small analogy. If nobody does large agriculture, there won’t be many tractors and tools sold and maintained. There won’t be cheap grain to be processed into convenience food, animal feed, booze. With those there won’t be food, meat, dairy and eggs for the masses which again needs specialised tools and machinery. You can keep going with this into increasingly miniscule economic sectors.

      The point I want to reach is drawing the picture of a propellerheaded youth sawing into the branch on which he is sitting - and with him the whole family of H.Sapiens.

      Just another food for thought. Scientists expect the next ice age in 10 millennia but we are about to loose our advanced and highly specialised society to a manmade global warming. We surely won’t be dying out anytime soon I believe, but neither will we be to go into that ice age as an advanced society.

      • fuzzzerd@programming.devEnglish
        38 minutes

        Off topic, I know, but I’m curious what you’re reading about the next ice age. Always found that history interesting, but never thought to look toward the next one.

      • AmyAye@nord.pubEnglish
        3 hours

        It’s so delusional.

        Like fuck everything AI creates is so generic and bland even generic and bland corporate output looks nice.

        • tempest@lemmy.caEnglish
          2 hours

          I don’t know.

          There is a ton of corporate email pushers and power point makers which could be replaced by an AI model I think.

          The current issue they are struggling with is figuring out who they can blame when it fucks up. At some point they will land on an answer that to that. We are literally in the age of people copy pasting AI output into emails. At some point that’s gotta give.

        • lIlIlIlIlIlIl@lemmy.worldEnglish
          2 hours

          That’s the consumer side. The boring bland generic is pretty decent for code if the operator isn’t a slop zombie

    • Rothe@piefed.socialEnglish
      4 hours

      Unfortunately the bubble popping will not provide you with better or cheaper access to those. At this point it is artificially created scarcity because they don’t want consumers to own hardware anymore. Even with the AI bubble popping, the tech oligarchs (with NVIDA at the helm) will still be pursuing their wet dreams of consumers having to subscribe to their cloudbased computers for everything.

      • bedwyr@piefed.caEnglish
        3 hours

        I will quit the internet before I become a renter of everything I used to just use free.

        • fuzzzerd@programming.devEnglish
          28 minutes

          You might, I think I would (at least personally, professionally I may not have a choice) but the vast majority of people will gladly go with this plan I suspect.

          Look at car purchasing, most people don’t look at the sticker price or the total cost of ownership, they stop paying attention as long as their income can (and in a lot of cases it technically can but really shouldn’t) support the monthly payment.

          Similar thing with new phones, most people buy a service plan that includes a lease or loan on a device. Very few people buy their sevice outright, because that’s a big purchase vs. a smaller monthly payment.

          If there was a market for this for laptops, regular folks would eat it up.

          That’s all opinion, so take it for what it’s worth. I hope I’m wrong. I’m fearful I’m not.

        • solarspark@lemmy.mlEnglish
          2 hours

          I love computers but never enough to participate in their plans.

          I know how to read. Write. Draw. Go on walks. Play sports. Basically sit and watch paint dry than give a shit about not using a computer again

        • MolochHorridus@piefed.socialEnglish
          3 hours

          Free or one time purchase and possible payments for once in a while big updates. I don’t mind paying when the offer is good and I have money.

          • bedwyr@piefed.caEnglish
            3 hours

            I am not paying google shit. Or any of them. I will join a privateering crew first.

            • ZenivEnglish
              2 hours

              You sort of can with solutions like MeshLLM

      • Damage@feddit.itEnglish
        4 hours

        Other manufactures will arise then. Won’t be quick, won’t be painless, but the US is not the whole world.

        • bedwyr@piefed.caEnglish
          3 hours

          You seem pretty sure about that. But where was the competition when they forced the switch to CD’s? The manufacturers are engaged in a shit-trust, and other anti-competitive behavior.

          No one will step up.

          • DespairSquid@lemmy.dbzer0.comEnglish
            2 hours

            Thats not… I feel like you weren’t alive yet when that transition happened.

            Because CDs are objectively better in basically every way than VHS and cassette, especially for consumers. No more tapes stuck in the player, no more rewinding, no more randomly unspooled tapes, no more twisted ribbons, no more seeking static, no more heat warping, etc. plus cds take up less space overall, and you can easily use many-disc cd changers.

            The market absolutely drove that transition, not manufacturers. VHS and cassette were still supported and produced for a LONG time after cds came about, because not everyone was willing to drop a ton of money to get their collection in a new format.

            • bedwyr@piefed.caEnglish
              2 hours

              CD’s are not better. They scratch easily, and the players break. Like right away. I have vhs that still work, no cd player still works outside of a laptop or game consul, and the disks scratch and get ruined.

              That you think they are better, ruins your credibility with me personally on this. You clearly don’t fucking get it.

                • bedwyr@piefed.caEnglish
                  1 hour

                  Oh, the personality of not believing the oligarchs in the face of some credulous half wit? I will, thanks.

    • ferret@sh.itjust.worksEnglish
      7 hours

      I assure you, if you are a brokie like the rest of us, you will not have the money to spare in the ensuing recession. Honestly I expect personal computing is dead, likely for a decade or more, if it ever comes back.

      • AmyAye@nord.pubEnglish
        3 hours

        Yeah, there is also speculation that part of this build out is intended to force a shortage to get everyone to shift to thin client “cloud PCs” where everyone can be monitored and ad blockers can be avoided.

        • ZenivEnglish
          2 hours

          yes that’s exactly the plan and the reason these companies are paying profound premiums back to nVidia. If they don’t pay up nVidia will just announce another spark roll out and scare the crap out of them. They know as soon as newer computer hits the consumer market they are dead in the water.

        • tempest@lemmy.caEnglish
          2 hours

          That shift has already happened.

          People on this forum trend to use personal computers but most people now only use phones. They might have a laptop provided by work but many don’t own one at all.

          The push to “the cloud” happened ten years ago. The people around here are the exception.

            • tempest@lemmy.caEnglish
              2 hours

              For most people it is. If you removed Internet access from the device what do you think people would say?

              9 out of 10 apps are just web apps with a launcher and stop working the moment you disable data.

      • schipelblorp@sh.itjust.worksEnglish
        4 hours

        From one brokie to another, drowning in debt is indistinguishable from drowning in debt with a GPU and SSD.

      • qyron@sopuli.xyzEnglish
        7 hours

        With the amount of integration it achieved to facilitate services and transactions? I am very skeptical of that. I expect to happen a serious market feagmentation and a great number of bankrupties but the void will be filled by new presences.

      • Korkki@lemmy.mlEnglish
        7 hours

        It wont be like dead dead, but just stagnant. Companies like nvidia will just sell the barely passable hardware with even less reason to upgrade because the prices will rise and the performance jumps will decrease. The good thing is that even the entry level hardware was already good enough for 95% of use cases and what justified upgrades anyway was mostly AAA gaming graphics slop or heavy 3d renders for professionals.

    • BeigeAgenda@lemmy.caEnglish
      2 hours

      I’ll get my big wallet, I better give them $7tn those poor billionaires.

  • Xaphanos@lemmy.worldEnglish
    5 hours

    How much is the cure/treatment for Parkinson’s worth? Or other intractable medical problems?

    What about a device able to manipulate the containment field of a fusion reactor?

    These are the reasons why everyone is buying the compute services - there are dozens of moonshot-grade problems that are suddenly possible to attempt. Many will fail, but whoever gets that one success will gain astronomical benefit.

      • antiR@lemmy.worldEnglish
        4 hours

        I believe at most, coding, scripting, and text processing.

        • im_fine_sandy@nord.pubEnglish
          4 hours

          Exactly, there’s a few specific use cases that the current generative AI is good at. Reading medical imagingand medication development are things I’d add to your list.

          However, outside of those specific tasks AI is not particularly useful. An incremental improvement in productivity in some cases.

    • GreenKnight23@lemmy.worldEnglish
      3 hours

      AI has been mainstream for what, 4 years now?

      if AI had such powerful results for developing novel solutions to problems such as medicine or material science, why have we not seen major improvements in those sectors?

      the way AI is spoken about is that it’s “world impacting” and “sector disrupting”. the only disruption and impacts I’m seeing are in human rights violations, price gouging, privacy negation, and corruption.

      if these are the results after only 4 years, I can only logically assume it will only get worse with more time and support.

    • im_fine_sandy@nord.pubEnglish
      4 hours

      I’ll believe that these things are possible when there’s some empirical evidence that they are.

      Why don’t you buy my amazing car. Yes it looks like that car that your nan drives to the shops but actually it can fly and time travel as well.