Jabril [none/use name]

And somehow the blue MAGA trump derangement syndrome swarm are going to agree with him on this one

Aww the ISIS member got caught ??

Canada wants their terrorist back??? Well you still have plenty of Ukrainian Nazis, maybe send them to China to help ISIS like they do in Africa so China can rid the world of more fascists

So you support Delcy? They don’t support her and think she is a Chavista who is continuing the lineage of Chavez. So you have the opposite opinion?

I mostly agree with what you are saying. the US can always use this play due to proximity alone, but Venezuela could also withhold their exports entirely if they are put back in the position of being blocked from making revenue. the US needs a regional source of resources and is more inclined to play ball than to cut themselves off from getting those resources. I agree with you that regional integration would be ideal, its a shame they were blocked from joining BRICS and don’t have many aligned governments in proximity anymore.

still we can see the comments from a few days ago from Rodriguez criticizing the sanctions on Russia, and the commitment between them to continuing to work together. We can also see China continues to work with them, although not making as many public statements about it. since they need exports to make money, they will ultimately need to be able to trade with more than just regional players to generate enough revenue to sustain their economy.

I think we need to also consider the economic and political conditions for the US with regard to Venezuela.

The US needs access to Venezuela’s resources, which can only be gained through repairing existing infrastructure that Venezuela can’t use itself due to the long term consequences of sanctions, as well as building new infrastructure that hasn’t existed yet.

Venezuela needs the sanctions to be lifted in order to have electricity, food, water, and sewage treatment - basic necessities that they have been living without for years. They also need an economy that warrants the ability to purchase the thing they need if they can’t make them domestically.

That takes a psychological toll on the people, and it has pushed them to be more dedicated to the commune movement, but that itself has no ability to scale up rapidly to meet the needs of the people without capital which they can not make without selling oil which can not make it out of the Caribbean before being stolen by the US. Millions are living without regular access to basic necessities for over a decade, how does this get resolved? Through vague notions of resistance and perseverance? What are the actual actions one must take to resolve these contradictions?

Still, the US is also crumbling.

The US economy is trash, their constant warmongering has caught up with them, and they are pretty desperate for that Venezuelan oil. oil which can’t be extracted without years of investment into Venezuelan infrastructure and the Venezuelan economy. how can they get it?

with what is going on in Iran, are they really going to invade Venezuela and install someone? There is no mass opposition to PSUV and Chavismo, just disparate and unpopular losers vying to be the viceroy, and that the US has openly admitted have no motion.

The US literally can’t go in and take Venezuelan oil, they need to invest and normalize Venezuela for that to ever be realized, and so the only path forward is for the US to do that with the Chavistas, who also need the same thing to happen. It isn’t one for one with the example of China, because this is happening long after that example existed with a totally different nation.

Still, PSUV has shown themselves to be knowledgeable and dedicated Marxists, who openly quote every revolutionary figure you can think of. They know about Vietnam. They know about Iran now. They can see what is happening too because it is all very clear. They know they can maneuver a situation where they get their means of production rebuilt, their infrastructure restored, and their communes are in the background working tirelessly on expanding and becoming self sustainable, with government funding.

They have leverage over the US in this situation, and if the armed, militant commune movement wanted to, they could make sure that US companies don’t get anything out of Venezuela for a long time. After years of sanctions, they would rather rebuild the society that sanctions have denied them before jumping into a deeper level of suffering and violence beyond the slow agony of sanctions.

They need to be come normalized as a nation and shake off the mantle of pariah, be able to have access to the global economy to make money, and be able to openly work with other nations again. A Chinese company just helped reopen an inoperable electrical station this week. Two weeks ago Zulia state had two turned back on. pharmacies have reopened. The US knows it can continue to force Venezuela to live in hell, but Venezuela knows the US needs their resources and is so desperate they they would cooperate.

In the end, the next test will be the elections. My prediction is we will see a situation similar to what just happened in Brasil, with the US attempting to use media manipulation to rig the election in favor of Machado, or someone else as she doesn’t have much support from the other opposition figures who she is competing with. Chavismo will win and then it will just be accepted that they run the country. this time their democratic process will be accepted because they are already normalized by this point anyway and then won the election. After Lula winning Brasil, I’m confident that PSUV will win this upcoming election. Chavismo is deeply entrenched and the alternative is being run by people who have openly asked the US to bomb your country and commit other heinous acts, which isn’t a popular idea either.

tl;dr US needs oil, venezuela needs money for crucial life saving infrastructure and just basic economic shit, and there is no mass popular resistance in opposition to PSUV, so its actually easier for the US to just work with PSUV and give them concessions, since the only way for the US to reap the benefits is after years of infrastructure repair and new production lines built from the ground up. the US would require a stable and consistent venezuela for that to ever pay off, and they can have that with PSUV since they are the only ones who are really around to do it and the US really really needs it for long term stability.