Ok so this is interesting. I am not sure this number is accurate I haven’t fully vetted it. I do this same type of forecasting. Morgan Stanley said for current capex commitments by 2027 4th quarter they needed to be 700 billion in profit. The problem is to meet that number they would need full market saturation and another 3 trillion in capex for build out. That means the entire accessible market would be using AI. They have another problem that more than half the world cannot access AI in its current form. The tooling these companies are using are wasteful and don’t meet the bandwidth needs of mobile first countries. So until the industry adopts things like https://codecai.net/ half the world’s markets are inaccessible. Finally they are under attack from all sides even if they had the money they may not have the ability to build out the AI infrastructure because that build out is becoming untenable for most communities. Even more the open source models and low cost AI are already in someways encroaching quickly on frontier systems. If you look at it right now the only reason you don’t have home AI as a commonplace solution is because the manufacturer has chosen not to sell it to you.
The local models thing is the real threat. For what 90% of the world who actually cares and wants AI, a local model is probably already “good enough”. Or would be if they could get the hardware, or maybe they don’t know how to set one up.
Light web searching suggests that neither the automobile industry as a whole nor the health insurance industry as a whole exceed $3 trillion in annual global revenue. Which means the plagiarism-to-slop pipeline just needs to make a little bit more than the automobile and health insurance industries combined to justify itself.
Easy. AI cloud controlled vehicle fleet with government support to make it mandatory, AI health centers as default healthcare, supplement the rest with premium AI generated nudies.
If you look at it right now the only reason you don’t have home AI as a commonplace solution is because the manufacturer has chosen not to sell it to you.
And memory shortage. By buying up all RAM they ensured that you can’t run much more than lobotomized models.
up all RAM they ensured that you can’t run much more than lobotomized models.
this is what I mean they’ve chosen to target a different consumer and rightfully so in that they are paying a premium for that product but they are also being subsidized by the same vendor so it’s not clear that they are paying more due to the bizarre circular funding pattern.
Ok so this is interesting. I am not sure this number is accurate I haven’t fully vetted it. I do this same type of forecasting. Morgan Stanley said for current capex commitments by 2027 4th quarter they needed to be 700 billion in profit. The problem is to meet that number they would need full market saturation and another 3 trillion in capex for build out. That means the entire accessible market would be using AI. They have another problem that more than half the world cannot access AI in its current form. The tooling these companies are using are wasteful and don’t meet the bandwidth needs of mobile first countries. So until the industry adopts things like https://codecai.net/ half the world’s markets are inaccessible. Finally they are under attack from all sides even if they had the money they may not have the ability to build out the AI infrastructure because that build out is becoming untenable for most communities. Even more the open source models and low cost AI are already in someways encroaching quickly on frontier systems. If you look at it right now the only reason you don’t have home AI as a commonplace solution is because the manufacturer has chosen not to sell it to you.
The local models thing is the real threat. For what 90% of the world who actually cares and wants AI, a local model is probably already “good enough”. Or would be if they could get the hardware, or maybe they don’t know how to set one up.
Light web searching suggests that neither the automobile industry as a whole nor the health insurance industry as a whole exceed $3 trillion in annual global revenue. Which means the plagiarism-to-slop pipeline just needs to make a little bit more than the automobile and health insurance industries combined to justify itself.
Easy. AI cloud controlled vehicle fleet with government support to make it mandatory, AI health centers as default healthcare, supplement the rest with premium AI generated nudies.
And memory shortage. By buying up all RAM they ensured that you can’t run much more than lobotomized models.
Still much cheaper to run an open source model on a rented gpu from the cloud.