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Technology@lemmy.worldbybeep@piefed.world
2 days

The price of AI is crashing faster than the rate of Moore's Law — intelligence costs are in freefall, outpacing comparative technologies like compute, DNA sequencing, and lithium batteries

epoch.ai English

cross-posted from: https://piefed.world/c/tech/p/1434965/the-price-of-ai-is-crashing-faster-than-the-rate-of-moore-s-law-report-suggests-intellig

17
    The plunging price of thought
    epoch.ai
    Epoch AI measures how fast the cost of a given level of AI performance is falling across five benchmarks covering math, science and games of skill: about 47% per quarter, or 13x per year, since 2023, faster than electricity, compute, batteries or DNA sequencing ever fell.
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    • solrize@lemmy.mlEnglish
      2 days

      How about DRAM? Show me some AI price crashes leading to DRAM price crashes. That’s what we all want, I think.

        • WhatAmLemmy@lemmy.worldEnglish
          2 days

          This still applies.

          Surveillance fascism needs the RAM, compute, and storage to implement totalitarianism and autonomous killing machines that won’t refuse to genocide the proles once they realize climate change is significantly worse than advertised, and our “democracies” are an illusion controlled by a big club of plutocrats.

          When the AI bubble pops, the US government will bail out all the tech companies, and all of the debt will be transferred to the working class via our retirement account losses and inflation; no different to the trillions in “forgiven” corporate loans central banks around the world printed during covid. The working class will essentially pay for the nazi big brother and nazi skynet that enslaves them.

          Thanyou for coming to my conspiracy theory ted talk.

            • trashboat@piefed.socialEnglish
              2 days

              I’ve been starting to think that once the bubble begins to pop, the US will bail out the banks by buying up their loans to hyperscalers, and they’ll start writing giant surveillance contracts to AI companies to compensate for the lack of demand. The rich get richer and the resulting stock corrections will end up hurting regular people most

          • Eq0@literature.cafeEnglish
            2 days

            Extremely interesting… so the depreciation of older models is extreme, while new models are constantly presented. And all the while no AI company is making any profit. This whole story is bonkers

            • pulsewidth@lemmy.worldEnglish
              2 days

              It’s funny watching them rig the system and simultaneously keep shooting themselves in the dick.

              Nvidia - desperate not to lose business as they’re now ~93% dependent on AI sales, so they keep ‘investing’ in OpenAI, Anthropic, etc… Who turn around and of course immediately buy Nvidia AI chipsets.

              OpenAI and Anthropic - panicking that investors will realize their IP is worth nothing (what we’ve said all along) as they are overtaken by much cheaper models, so they lower their pricing drastically - can’t risk losing that market share*.

              *market share is irrelevant really, there is no first-to-market winner in AI, but you cant lie to idiots investors for another 16 rounds of funding to 2030 unless you can show userbase growth to them.

              Really hard to keep propping up the con when barely anyone is paying.

              Fingers crossed for horrible things to happen to then soon.

              • Th4tGuyII@fedia.io
                2 days

                So in essence the price that the market will bare for the cost of AI usage is significantly lower than what the big AI companies would like it to be (in order to pay back their ever growing debts), which means there is a possibility they might never achieve profitability on their own (without some external/governmental strong-arming)

                • Setiyeti93@lemmy.caEnglish
                  2 days

                  Because those other technologies are infinitely more useful… So obviously governments and private equity you’re going to invest in AI. Makes perfect sense to me.

                  God I’m so tired

                    • REDACTED@infosec.pubEnglish
                      2 days

                      No one knows how useful AI will be in the long term and anyone thinking they know is full of themselves Everyone’s gambling.

                        • Broadfern@lemmy.worldEnglish
                          2 days

                          Like the dotcom bubble, the technology will likely stay long term but the hype scam has been the major issue

                          • DrSleepless@lemmy.worldEnglish
                            2 days

                            Yep I see polymarket and fan duel ads all the time, everybody is gambling

                        • CompactFlax@discuss.tchncs.deEnglish
                          2 days

                          “Look how low our cost of inference is”

                          “Pay no attention to the marketing budget that exceeds Coca-Cola’s for a small fraction of their revenues”

                          What technical, fundamental reason is there for the crash in price? The article just accepts the MSRP as fact. The cost of training can indeed be spread over time but it’s not spread across enough time. The inference cost doesn’t actually drop in reality.

                          • naught101@lemmy.worldEnglish
                            2 days

                            the price of thought

                            Oh fuck off.

                            • pHr34kY@lemmy.worldEnglish
                              2 days

                              Kinda sus that the cost of electricity stops at 1973.

                              • exu@feditown.comEnglish
                                2 days

                                So instead of 1$ return for 3$ spent it’s now 4$ or 5$ spent.

                                • floquant@lemmy.dbzer0.comEnglish
                                  2 days

                                  So also less revenue for the AI companies?

                                  • Chozo@fedia.io
                                    2 days

                                    That’s cool and all, but when can I buy RAM again?

                                    • Dr. Bob@lemmy.caEnglish
                                      2 days

                                      So revenue is falling. The only way the bubble grows is forcing this shit into even more places?

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